Lost Origin Trainer Gallery Pikachu pop report: a holo rare that got graded anyway

Published October 21, 2026 · Pop figures refresh with every site build; the current pull is October 1, 2026

Seventy one ordinary holo rares across four Sword and Shield sets have been graded 3,207 times between them. This one Trainer Gallery Pikachu has been graded 19,091 times by itself. Both groups came back with nearly the same odds, and that is the part of the Lost Origin Trainer Gallery Pikachu pop report worth slowing down for: Pikachu TG05 holds 3,938 Gem Mint 10s at the October 1, 2026 pull for a 20.6 percent gem rate, while the plain holo rares almost nobody mails in sit at 19.55 percent.

The damage story this card does not have

9,689 submissions came back a PSA 9, which is 50.75 percent of everything this card has ever been graded. Another 3,989 stopped at the 8. Only 1,462 copies, 7.66 percent, landed at a 7 or lower.

So the card is not arriving beaten up. Modern cardboard pulled from a 2022 booster and sleeved the same afternoon mostly stays clean, and this census agrees: more than nine in ten submissions clear an 8. The losses happen at the top door, where half of everything sent in gets handed a 9 and sent home.

Gem rates that low usually belong to cards with a damage story. This one does not have one.

A holo rare riding along in an ultra rare's pack

Lost Origin's Trainer Gallery runs TG01 to TG30, and the Pokemon TCG API files the thirty cards under five different rarities. TG01 through TG11, Pikachu included, are Trainer Gallery Rare Holo. TG12 through TG22 and the two secret cards are Rare Holo V, VMAX or Secret. TG23 through TG28 are Rare Ultra Supporters.

Those rarity labels predict the census almost perfectly. Pool the eleven Trainer Gallery Rare Holo rows at the October 1, 2026 pull and 77,440 grades return 23.12 percent tens. Pool the V and VMAX rows and 66,927 grades return 60.52 percent. The six Supporters land at 47.04 percent on 4,084. One subset, one booster pack, and a 37 point spread that follows the rarity line and nothing else.

Our Crown Zenith Galarian Gallery breakdown measured that same break across five subsets and left the cause open, having checked the border widths and found them identical. The rarity join is what closes it, and it points somewhere less exotic than the subset.

The same odds on cards nobody sends in

Take the four main sets that carry a Trainer Gallery, Brilliant Stars through Silver Tempest, and sort every row by the rarity the Pokemon TCG API records rather than by subset. The ordinary Rare Holo cards, the yellow bordered holos that sit in the main numbering where they always have, come back at 19.55 percent tens across 71 rows. The Trainer Gallery Rare Holo cards come back at 23.41 percent across 46 rows. Both park about half their submissions at the 9: 51.14 percent for the ordinary holos, 52.50 percent for the Gallery ones.

Every other rarity in those same four sets runs away from both. Rare Holo V returns 42.87 percent, Rare Ultra 51.52, Radiant Rare 55.36, Rare Holo VMAX 64.41.

Which means TG05 is not a Trainer Gallery result and not a Pikachu result. It is a holo rare result, and holo rares have always graded like this. What the Trainer Gallery changed was the submission volume, not the odds. Those 71 ordinary holo rares averaged 45 grades each. The 46 Gallery holo rares averaged 3,170, seventy times as many, for an outcome within four points.

Lost Origin makes the point inside one set, because it printed Gengar twice. The main set Gengar at number 066 has taken 600 grades for a 16.67 percent gem rate. The Trainer Gallery Gengar at TG06 has taken 24,051 for 22.30 percent. Forty times the submissions, roughly the same card, roughly the same answer.

PSA publishes no reasons alongside a grade, so what separates a holo rare from a V card physically is still inference. Put the faces side by side and the obvious candidate is the frame: TG05 keeps a yellow border on all four sides, while TG16 Pikachu V and TG24 Boss's Orders in the same packs run their art to the card edge. A border gives a grader four measurable widths to compare, and a borderless face does not. The census is consistent with that. It does not prove it.

Furusawa drew a nap, and Pokemon filed it under full art

Atsushi Furusawa illustrated TG05, and also TG11 Castform in the same thirty card run. The scene is Akari, one of the player characters from Pokemon Legends: Arceus, asleep on her side under a tree in her Survey Corps uniform, with Pikachu dozing against her cheek. Pokemon's own announcement of the subset on September 28, 2022 described her as worn out after some intense adventuring, and noted the Pikachu with one of its feet shoved into its partner's cheek. Sunlight comes through the leaves in patches across the grass.

That announcement is also where the vocabulary problem starts. It calls the Trainer Gallery a special 30 card subset of beautiful, full art cards with their own numbering. All thirty, one description, for a group the census splits 37 points apart. Titled eBay sales for TG05 in October 2026 inherit the muddle, describing it as Holo Rare, as Ultra Rare, as Full Art and as Illustration Rare, sometimes two of those in one listing.

What a one in five ticket costs in October

PSA's Standard tier read $59.99 with a $1,000 insured ceiling and an estimated 90 to 100 business days on psacard.com on October 21, 2026, with Value services still paused. A ten on this card sits well under that ceiling, so Standard is the door.

One caveat sits underneath every graded figure here. PriceCharting masks recent graded sold prices, printing $6 on each eBay row in the PSA 7 through 10 tables, and the dump carries no auction house rows to recover a real number from. So the $750 is PriceCharting's own estimate rather than a price somebody paid on a date. The raw column is solid: 59 dated sales between July 13 and October 21, 2026 ran a $45.00 median, with the 29 TCGplayer Near Mint rows at $45.91.

Weight the four outcomes by the census this card actually produces, take 15 percent off each payout for fees and shipping a slab, and $107.39 of raw card plus service returns about $179, a gain of 66.7 percent. Breakeven sits at an 8.23 percent gem rate against a lifetime 20.6 percent. Those are good numbers that rest on an estimated ten, and a PSA 9 comes back $23 underwater on a card that hands out 9s half the time.

The submissions have not slowed down either. This row took 572 fresh grades in the last period on a 30 day trend of plus 16 percent, so the thing feeding the PSA 9 pile is still running.

Check the number in the corner first

Read the TG number before you read anything else, because on this subset it is the odds. TG12 or higher and better than half the submissions gem. TG11 or lower and you are holding a holo rare that has returned one ten in five since 2022, whatever the art looks like.

If you are grading TG05 anyway, work the yellow border first: lay the card flat and compare the band width left against right and top against bottom, because that is the measurement half these submissions are losing. Buy near the tape at $45 and the table above is roughly yours. For the wider version of this question, our guide to reading a pop report explains what these columns can and cannot tell you, the two Crown Zenith Pikachus show the same split landing on one Pokemon twice, and you can sort all thirty Lost Origin Gallery rows against each other in the BetterPop gallery.

Sources

• PSA population via the GemRate pull of October 1, 2026; every figure in the data blocks above refreshes with each site build
• The eleven row Trainer Gallery Rare Holo band, the V and Supporter bands, the four set rarity pools, the 71 versus 46 row comparison, the per card submission averages and the Lost Origin Gengar pair were computed from that pull
• Rarities, illustrator credits and card numbers for all thirty Lost Origin Trainer Gallery rows and the 217 row Lost Origin main set from the Pokemon TCG API records for sets swsh11tg and swsh11, read October 21, 2026; the TG05 illustrator credit cross checked against the TCGdex record for swsh11tg-TG05 and against the card face
• PriceCharting: Pikachu #TG05, Pokemon Lost Origin, grade ladder and full dated sold tape, read October 21, 2026; the graded tables were masked and are reported here as estimates
• PSA trading card grading service levels, Standard fee, insured ceiling, turnaround and the continuing Value pause, read October 21, 2026
• Pokemon.com, Charizard and More in the Pokemon TCG: Sword & Shield Lost Origin Trainer Gallery, published September 28, 2022, for the subset description and the Akari scene
• The border and frame descriptions verified against the card faces for TG05, TG16, TG24 and Crown Zenith GG10 on pokemontcg.io